Climate change and food insecurity remain major challenges for rural agro-pastoral communities in Somaliland. Unpredictable rainfall, rising temperatures, declining agricultural productivity, and limited market access continue to place pressure on household livelihoods.
These challenges motivated our recently published study, “Household Socio-Demographics, Climate Change Perceptions, and Food Security in Agro-Pastoral Somaliland: Evidence from Rural Arabsiyo District,” published in SN Social Sciences (Springer Nature).
Why did we undertake this study?
Although previous research has explored climate variability and agricultural livelihoods in Somaliland, limited evidence combines household food security, socio-demographic characteristics, community climate perceptions, and long-term observed climate trends.
Our study aimed to understand how food insecurity relates to household characteristics and how communities' perceptions of climate change correspond with observed climatic patterns.
How did we conduct the research?
We employed a mixed-methods approach involving 114 agro-pastoral households across three villages in Arabsiyo District, Somaliland. Data were collected through household surveys, nine key informant interviews, and field observations.
Food insecurity was assessed using the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS). We also analyzed rainfall and temperature records from 1991–2023 using CHIRPS and ERA5-Land datasets, alongside cereal-production records from 2010–2024.
What did we discover?
Our findings revealed substantial household food insecurity:
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80.7% of households experienced moderate or severe food insecurity.
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74.6% were moderately food insecure.
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Only 19.3% were food secure.
Community perceptions also revealed widespread concern about climatic and agricultural changes:
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90.4% reported frequent droughts and floods.
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89.5% perceived changes in temperature patterns.
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86.0% reported declining crop yields and staple-food availability.
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86.8% reported reduced livestock productivity.
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93.9% reported that reduced farm productivity negatively affected household income.
Importantly, long-term climate records confirmed a statistically significant warming trend of approximately 0.17°C per decade, while rainfall exhibited considerable variability without a statistically significant long-term directional trend.
What factors were associated with food security?
Market accessibility and marital status showed statistically significant associations with household food security. Notably, none of the households reporting market-access challenges were classified as food secure.
Education showed a weaker association that was sensitive to the statistical test applied.
Why does this research matter?
Our findings demonstrate that food insecurity cannot be understood through climate change alone. Household socio-economic conditions, market accessibility, agricultural productivity, and climatic pressures interact to shape rural vulnerability.
Strengthening food security therefore requires integrated approaches that improve rural market access, promote climate-resilient agriculture, strengthen water management, and expand access to climate information and livelihood opportunities.
More broadly, this research contributes locally grounded evidence from Somaliland to international discussions on climate resilience, sustainable agriculture, and household food security in drought-prone regions.
Read the full article:
https://doi.org/10.1007/s43545-026-01826-6
Published in SN Social Sciences (Springer Nature), 2026.
Authors: Mohamed Abdullahi Omer and Mabsoud Elmi Mawlid.