The increasing severity of climate change is becoming evident through more frequent and intense weather-related disasters, leading to a growing risk of disaster-induced displacement. Natural disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, and droughts displace approximately three times more people annually than conflicts and violence. Unlike migration, disaster displacement primarily results in internal displacement, meaning people are forced to relocate within their own country rather than cross international borders. Disaster-prone regions often lack the resources to mitigate damage and adapt effectively. As a result, environmental governance plays a pivotal role in adaptation and resilience-building, enabling governments, NGOs, and communities to take a comprehensive approach to disaster risk reduction. Our study investigates the relationship between environmental governance and disaster displacement, emphasizing the necessity of effective governance for climate change adaptation and sustainable development.

Understanding the Link Between Disasters, Climate Change, and Displacement

The connection between disasters, climate change, and displacement has been well-documented in the literature. Studies have shown that each degree of global warming could increase global displacement risk by 50% and global flood displacement by 150% by the end of the century. The impact is particularly pronounced in Asia-Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa, where over 85% of disaster-induced displacement occurs.

Regions heavily reliant on climate-sensitive livelihoods, such as South Asia, face heightened vulnerability. Similarly, in Latin America, environmental vulnerability exacerbates social and economic fragility, driving displacement and migration. In Africa, displacement patterns are shaped by a complex interplay of sociodemographic, economic, and political factors.

Ultimately, disaster displacement is not just a consequence of environmental hazards—it is deeply intertwined with governance, economic conditions, and social structures. Effective environmental governance can enhance a region’s adaptability and reduce displacement risk.

A Global Perspective on Environmental Governance and Displacement

To date, research on disaster displacement has primarily focused on local or regional case studies, limiting our ability to identify common trends across different regions. Our study is the first global-scale investigation into the link between environmental governance and disaster displacement, utilizing a panel dataset covering 92 countries over an 11-year period (2010–2020). We employed the ND-GAIN readiness index to assess environmental governance. This index evaluates governance, economic, and social readiness, offering a comprehensive measure of a country’s capacity to manage disaster risks. Granger non-causality tests revealed a strong bidirectional relationship between environmental governance and disaster displacement across all income levels.

Key Findings:

1. Governance Readiness Reduces Displacement:

   • Higher governance readiness (political stability, regulatory quality, and rule of law) was associated with lower displacement levels.
   • This effect was strongest in high-income countries.

2. Economic and Social Readiness Matter:

   • In middle-income countries, displacement was reduced by both governance and economic readiness.
   • In low-income countries, all three readiness components—governance, economic, and social—were essential in mitigating displacement.

3. Large vs. Small-Scale Disasters:

   • Large-scale disasters (e.g., hurricanes, floods) led to increased investment in post-disaster recovery, which in turn improved economic and social readiness.
   • Small-scale disasters, however, did not trigger the same level of response, leading to weaker improvements in governance and economic readiness. This suggests that smaller events may receive less policy attention and funding despite their cumulative impact.

Our findings highlight that enhancing governance and economic resilience is key to minimizing disaster displacement, particularly in vulnerable regions.

Policy Implications and Future Research Directions

Our study underscores the urgent need for policies that strengthen environmental governance to mitigate disaster displacement. Key recommendations include:

1. Strengthening Governance Capacity

Governments must prioritize political stability, regulatory improvements, and anti-corruption measures to enhance governance readiness. Strengthening disaster risk management institutions and improving enforcement of environmental policies can significantly reduce displacement risk.

2. Investing in Economic Resilience

In middle- and low-income countries, economic development is crucial for reducing displacement. Governments should:

• Invest in climate-resilient infrastructure.
• Develop early warning systems and emergency response plans.
• Provide financial support to affected communities and businesses.

3. Addressing Social Readiness

Social inequalities exacerbate disaster displacement. Policies should focus on:

• Expanding education and disaster awareness programs.
• Improving ICT (information and communication technology) infrastructure for disaster response.
• Strengthening community resilience through social networks and local engagement.

4. Advancing Global Cooperation and Research

Climate change and disaster displacement are transboundary issues that require global collaboration. Future research should:

• Explore regional differences in disaster displacement to tailor policy responses.
• Investigate the long-term effects of governance improvements on displacement trends.
• Examine the role of private sector and civil society actors in disaster governance.

Conclusion: A Call for Action

Our findings provide empirical evidence that strong environmental governance is essential for mitigating disaster displacement. While governance plays a critical role across all income groups, our study highlights the need for targeted policies that enhance economic and social resilience in vulnerable regions.

Addressing climate-induced displacement requires a coordinated effort between governments, organizations, and communities. By prioritizing good governance, economic stability, and social preparedness, we can build resilient societies capable of withstanding the increasing threats posed by climate change.

With climate-related disasters on the rise, now is the time for action. Strengthening environmental governance today will shape a more sustainable and secure future for displaced populations worldwide.