The psychology of escalating risk: how small risks become bigger ones
Published in Neuroscience and Behavioural Sciences & Psychology
Anecdotally, excessive risk-taking can be traced back to minor acts that escalated gradually. What leads to risk-taking escalation and why is escalation fast in some individuals, but not in others? Here, over three experiments (NMain Experiment = 160, NValidation Experiment = 35, NControl Experiment = 30), we used Virtual Reality to simulate physical risk by having participants walk on a virtual plank suspended in midair. We demonstrate that with repeated opportunities to engage in such risk, emotional responses habituate and risk-taking escalates. The rate of escalation differed dramatically across individuals. We found no credible evidence that individuals' baseline emotions or trait anxiety predicted risk escalation. Instead, the key was how fast anxiety and excitement declined. Individuals who reported faster reduction of anxiety or excitement tended to take more risk over time. The findings may help to identify individuals prone to risk-taking escalation and to develop tools that restore emotions to reduce fatal risk-taking.
Read our full paper here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s44271-025-00319-1
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