Droughts significantly impact water management, especially in semi-arid regions with high water demand. Our study demonstrates that integrating drought indices with seasonal forecasts can enhance decision-making in water resource management. This research presents a multi-model seasonal forecasting system for meteorological drought indices, utilizing forecasts from four systems and artificial intelligence for post-processing. The system computes SPI and SPEI indices, showing high forecast skill, with CRPSS values around 90% at one lead month and retaining useful skill up to five lead months. The methodology, applied to the Jucar River Basin, highlights the potential of these forecasts for supporting drought early warning and water management. However, more work is still needed to refine these models and expand their applicability to other drought-prone regions, offering a valuable tool for environmental and risk management. Read the full paper here: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41748-025-00965-9
How Good Are Drought Forecasts? Skill of multi-model Seasonal Forecast of Meteorological Droughts in a semi-arid Mediterranean Basin
Our recent article presents a multi-model seasonal forecasting system for meteorological drought indices, integrating forecasts from four systems with AI post-processing. This approach enhances drought early warning and water management in semi-arid regions