This paper [1] began with a simple but urgent question. Much has been written about the restrictions on women in Afghanistan [2] – especially limits on education and employment. The human cost is undeniable. But as economists, we kept asking: what is the economic cost of these policies?
Answering that question was not straightforward. Reliable data from fragile and conflict-affected settings are rare. This is where our collaboration became essential.
One of my co-authors, Rafiuddin Najam, has spent years working closely with data from Afghanistan [3] and documenting the situation on the ground [4]. His persistence – and deep familiarity with the country’s data systems – made this project possible. Along with Raja Bentaouet Kattan, we were able to bring together multiple datasets that are rarely used together: nationally representative household surveys spanning more than a decade, and detailed administrative records on public employees.
With these data, we set out first to answer a classic question in the economics of education: what are the returns to schooling?
Even in Afghanistan – despite decades of conflict – we find that education pays. Each additional year of schooling is associated with a 3 to 7 percent increase in earnings, with particularly strong returns for women. These results hold across different estimation methods and across both the public sector and the broader labor market.
But the paper quickly became about what happens if women’s education and employment continue to be banned. Afghanistan today is not just a context of low schooling – it is a context where access is being actively restricted. Girls are no longer allowed to continue education beyond a certain level [5], and women face severe constraints in the labor market [6].
So, the question shifted: If education raises earnings, what happens when education – and work – are taken away? Complementing our micro-level estimates with macro-level evidence, we examined the broader implications of these restrictions. The answer is stark. When women are excluded from education and employment, the result is not only lost opportunity – it is lost income, at both the individual and national level.
In economic terms, this is a reduction in human capital – and human capital is central to growth, productivity, and development. What we are observing, therefore, is not just stagnation – but a reversal of progress.
One of the striking aspects of this work is how it connects micro-level evidence to broader economic consequences. A single additional year of schooling may seem small. But when multiplied across cohorts – and especially when removed from an entire segment of the population – the aggregate loss becomes immense.
At a more personal level, this project also reflects the importance of collaboration. Working with co-authors who bring different perspectives – policy, data, and country expertise – allowed us to tackle a question that none of us could have addressed alone.
There is still much to learn. We need better estimates of long-term impacts, including intergenerational effects and broader macroeconomic consequences. We also need continued documentation – especially in contexts where data are difficult to collect and access is constrained.
But one conclusion is already clear. Education is not just an investment. It is a foundation. When it is expanded, people benefit – especially those who would otherwise be left behind. When it is restricted, the losses are real, measurable, and far-reaching.
This paper is our attempt to quantify those losses – and to bring an economic perspective to an issue that is too often discussed only in social or political terms.
References
- Najam, R., Patrinos, H.A. & Kattan, R.B. The mis-education of women in Afghanistan: from wage premiums to economic losses. J Popul Econ 39, 21 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-026-01148-0
- United States Institute of Peace (2024) Tracking the Taliban’s mistreatment of women. https://www.usip.org/ tracking-talibans-mistreatment-women. Accessed 11–03-2025
- Najam R (2024) Closing the gap: effect of a gender quota on women’s access to education in Afghanistan. Econ Educ Rev 99:102509
- Najam R, Johnston A (2023) Information provision and preferences toward tuition introduction in public universities: evidence from a survey experiment in Afghanistan. Educ Econ 31(6):649–663
- UN Women (2025) Gender index 2024: Afghanistan. Technical report, UN Women. https://www.unwomen. org/sites/default/files/2025-06/gender-index-2024-afghanistan-en.pdf. Accessed 3 Nov 2025
- Zaman S (2025) Despite restrictions, Afghan women provide health care. Voice of America. https://www. voanews.com/a/despite-restrictions-afghan-women-provide-health-care-/7990705.html. Accessed 3 Nov 2025