In my article for TLG – The International Affairs Journal of the London School of Economics, titled Is Russia Helping the EU New Deal? The Green Hydrogen Scenario, I explore the paradox at the heart of Europe’s energy transition: the Continent’s determination to emancipate itself from Gazprom‑induced dependency, even as the legacy of that dependency shapes the contours of its future.
The analysis positions green hydrogen as a pivotal vector of both industrial decarbonisation and geopolitical reconfiguration. While renewable electrification and efficiency gains offer unprecedented promise, it is hydrogen—capable of decarbonising steel, chemicals, aviation, and maritime synfuels—that assumes centre stage in Europe’s long‑term strategy. Yet formidable infrastructural and economic impediments remain, from electrolyser deployment to storage, transport, and cost competitiveness.
The essay interrogates whether Russia, paradoxically, has accelerated Europe’s strategic pivot. The shock of dependency has compelled the European Union to cultivate indigenous hydrogen capacity, diversify supply chains, and forge Mediterranean partnerships capable of supplanting fossil‑fuel reliance. In this sense, hydrogen emerges not merely as a technological artefact but as a harbinger of a new energy diplomacy, one in which Europe seeks resilience through autonomy and regional cooperation.
The article ultimately argues that the hydrogen scenario is inseparable from the broader geopolitical recalibration underway: a shift from vulnerability to strategic agency, from fossil entanglement to renewable sovereignty.
Keywords: Russia; European Union; Green Hydrogen; Energy Diplomacy; Decarbonisation; Fossil Fuels.