https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s44292-025-00043-9
Our study investigates how multiple climate drivers greenhouse gases, aerosols, natural, and solar factors shape Africa’s rising temperature extremes from 1960 to 2100. Using CMIP6 climate models and reanalysis data, we found that greenhouse gases are the dominant cause of warming, contributing over 100% to extreme heat trends, while aerosols slightly offset this effect through regional cooling. North and West Africa are projected to experience the most severe increases in hot days and nights, with warm night frequency rising by up to 80% under high-emission scenarios. The findings highlight that even under low-emission pathways, Africa will still face significant warming impacts on agriculture, water, and health. Urgent mitigation and region-specific adaptation strategies are needed to reduce future heat risks and build resilience across the continent.