Worldwide geothermal power (2024)

The World Geothermal Congress (WGC) 2023 was held in Beijing, China, in September 2023. It was the seventh international geothermal congress convened by the International Geothermal Association (IGA). 

Since the first WGC, held in Florence, Italy, in 1995, a set of tables have been prepared to uniformize the data and information regarding the status of geothermal fields, wells, power plants, generation, direct uses, technical personnel and estimated investments in geothermal exploration and development. Based on those tabulated data, but also on the country update reports prepared and presented in the same WGC, two keynote worldwide reports are presented in each WGC. One includes the relevant data for power generation, and other for direct uses of geothermal heat, among them: balneology, geothermal heat pumps, heating and cooling, greenhouses, and other many agricultural and industrial applications.

I had the opportunity to prepare and present the data for power generation in the WGC2023 in Beijing, whose main findings and data were later assembled in a paper that was finally published in the journal Geothermal Energy in 2024. You can access the paper here.

As of December 2022, the geothermal installed capacity in the world amounted to 16,318 MW, distributed in 32 countries and approximately 198 geothermal fields in operation. It represented a tiny fraction (0.16%) of the worldwide electric installed capacity on the same date, which was 10,216,390 MW. Geothermal electric generation in those fields and countries during 2021 amounted to 96,552 GWh, representing 0.34% of the world electric generation, and 0.87% of the clean energy generated in the world. Clean energy is defined as electricity generated by low-carbon sources, which basically include all renewables plus nuclear.

Geothermal installed capacity shows almost eightfold growth (7.7 times) in the last four decades, passing from 2110 in 1980 to 16,318 MW in 2023, while the annual geothermal generation has a similar growth (7.4 times), from estimated 13,100 GWh in 1980 to 96,552 GWh in 2021. Both parameters show a steady but constant tendency.

It’s important highlight that, in spite of the tiny contribution of geothermal energy to the world power generation, there are several countries where geothermal energy is currently a major game player in their electricity mix. As of 2021-2022, there were seven countries, three of them in Central America, where geothermal electric generation contributed a minimum of 10% of their total electric generation: Kenya, with 45%, Iceland with almost a third, El Salvador with almost a fourth, and New Zealand, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and the Philippines between 10-20%. Therefore, while all geothermal power plants could be shut-down with no perceptible impact in the world, it would be catastrophic at least in those seven countries, as well as in certain regions of some countries such as the State of Nevada in the US (almost 10% of electric generation in 2022), the isolated electric system of Baja California in Mexico (almost 20% of the electricity demand), and specific regions in other countries.

Capacity Factor (CF) is a concept calculated for every power unit to assess its performance during a defined period. It’s defined by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), as “The ratio of the electrical energy produced by a generating unit for the period of time considered to the electrical energy that could have been produced at continuous full power operation during the same period” (which is usually a calendar year). The global average capacity factor for all geothermal power plants in 2021-2022 is 67.5%. Of course, it’s a general estimation, since it combines data for 2021 in most cases and for 2022 in some other cases, and it was calculated on a mix of relatively new and other very old plants, still in operation. However, it can offer an idea about the global performance of geothermal plants in the world during more than 40 years, which is approximately 69% with a minimum of 63.6% in 1995 and maximum of 71.2% in 2005.

The top the countries with the highest installed capacity in 2022-2023 are the following: 

Regarding geothermal power plants, and according to the collated data presented in the WGC2023, it there were 673 power units in operation of mainly three basic types: condensing or flash plants, binary cycle (ORC), and combined, with a couple of important modifications of the first one: backpressure (no condensers and cooling system) and dry-steam (no separators), as shown in the following table:

*Other includes a combination of flash and binary plants, as well as a couple of units of binary Kalina cycle type.

The number of production wells operating in the 198 geothermal fields in the world is estimated to be ~3700, 22.2% of which are in the US, 14.1% in Indonesia, and 11.5% in the Philippines, three countries that concentrate almost half (47.7%) of the total –as expected, since they have 50.6% of the installed capacity in the world. In fact, ten countries, all with ≥200 production wells in operation, have 92.9% of all the wells in operation, as presented in the following table:

In summary, the situation of the geothermal power industry in the world has not changed much in the recent years. Things seem to be similar in the next few years if the current trend is projected. Applying the same growth rate that occurred in the last three years, the global geothermal installed capacity in 2027 would be 18.16 GW and electric generation would be 114.4 GWh.

However, there are conditions for things to be different in the following years. For instance, the COP28, held in Dubai, UEA, in 2023, adopted the goal of tripling the worldwide renewable power capacity by 2030, in order of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. In addition, moving the world onto a path toward net zero emissions by 2050, also means doubling the annual rate of global energy efficiency progress by the end of this decade.

In that context, it is worth highlight that geothermal electric generation is currently the only renewable baseload source, being able to generate 24-7 around the year, regardless of any daily or seasonal variation. Therefore, 100 MW of a new geothermal power plant, operating at a conservative capacity factor of 90%, can generate the same electricity of an onshore wind power installation of 280 MW at an annual capacity factor of 32%, or of a PV solar farm of 320 MW at an annual capacity factor of 28%.

Thus, the geothermal power industry seems to be ushering a promising period, pulled by the world urgency to maintain global warming below the 1.5°C threshold.

Finally, I'd like to invite to attend the next WGC2026, that will be held in Calgary, Canada, in June 2026. You can learn about the congress here.