Urban flood susceptibility modelling of Guwahati in India using GIS-based AHP-MCDM for sustainable disaster risk management

Like

Share this post

Choose a social network to share with, or copy the URL to share elsewhere

This is a representation of how your post may appear on social media. The actual post will vary between social networks

Rapid, often unplanned urbanisation and intensified monsoonal regimes have significantly escalated the frequency and magnitude of urban inundation in the South Asian Indo-Gangetic-Brahmaputra plain. This study develops a granular, ward-level flood susceptibility assessment for the Guwahati Municipal Corporation (GMC), a strategic urban gateway in North-East India characterised by a complex mosaic of low-lying floodplains and Precambrian hillocks. Utilising an integrated Geographic Information System (GIS) and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework, sixteen hydro-geomorphological and anthropogenic conditioning factors were synthesised via the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Statistical independence of the parameters was verified through a multicollinearity assessment, yielding Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) values below 3.636. The hierarchical weighting identified monsoonal rainfall (18.20%), elevation (13.11%), and slope (11.57%) as the dominant drivers of inundation. Spatial analysis reveals that approximately 47.35% of the GMC diagnostic expanse resides within ‘High’ or ‘Very High’ susceptibility zones, with the most critical vulnerabilities concentrated in the western and southern administrative wards (Wards 1, 2, 9, 23, and 24). The model's predictive reliability was empirically validated using a historical flood inventory (2014–2024) and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, achieving an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.909 for the prediction dataset. These findings provide a robust scientific foundation for transitioning from reactive disaster response to proactive, evidence-based urban governance, emphasising the strategic conservation of natural detention basins and the implementation of ward-specific mitigation frameworks to align with Sustainable Development Goal 11.

Please sign in or register for FREE

If you are a registered user on Research Communities by Springer Nature, please sign in

Follow the Topic

Spotlight on Research from India
Research Publishing > Spotlight on Research from India
Earth Sciences
Physical Sciences > Earth and Environmental Sciences > Earth Sciences
Social Science Matters
Humanities and Social Sciences > Social Science Matters
Social Sciences
Humanities and Social Sciences > Social Sciences
Sustainability
Research Communities > Community > Sustainability

Introducing: Social Science Matters

Social Science Matters is a campaign from the team at Palgrave Macmillan that aims to increase the visibility and impact of the social sciences

Continue reading announcement