Citation: Kioumarsi, H., Sarsozo,  M., & Davani, S.M. (2025). Current and Future Perspectives on Climate Reality. Research Communities by Springer Nature. https://go.nature.com/4a8JmsN

Abstract

Human-caused climate change is no longer a matter of distant projection: it is a real, rapidly intensifying phenomenon with far-reaching physical, ecological, and societal consequences. Scientific understanding-via improved observations, models, and detection/attribution studies-has clarified the magnitude, drivers, and near-term trajectories of warming, while also refining estimates of the remaining carbon budget and the risks of abrupt or irreversible changes (tipping points). At the same time, mitigation and adaptation pathways have matured, showing technically feasible ways to reduce emissions but highlighting the urgency of immediate, deep cuts. This review summarizes key findings from the latest physical-science assessments, the status of the remaining carbon budget, evidence about tipping-point risks and extreme events, and outlooks for mitigation and adaptation. Conclusions emphasize research and policy priorities for navigating the coming decades.

Introduction

Anthropogenic climate change has moved from being a scientific hypothesis to a lived global reality. Indeed, over the past few decades, the accumulation of evidence from instrumental observations, paleoclimate records, and sophisticated Earth system models has confirmed that the Earth is experiencing an unprecedented rate of climate warming, primarily due to human activities. Combustion of fossil fuels, industrial processes, land-use changes involving deforestation, and intensive farming have resulted in recent atmospheric concentrations of CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O unlike those of at least the past centuries.

The consequences of this warming are already manifesting: glaciers and ice sheets are retreating, sea levels are rising, ocean heat content is increasing, and the frequency and severity of extreme weather events are escalating. These impacts will endanger not only natural ecosystems but also human livelihoods, public health, and global economic stability.

Meanwhile, the international community has also moved forward in understanding and working on the crisis. The 2015 Paris Agreement created an unprecedented collective commitment to limit warming to well below 2°C, or preferably 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels. Yet despite these efforts, global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, and the window of opportunity for stabilizing the climate system is rapidly closing. There are also well known international projects such as The Climate Reality Project to catalyze a global solution to the climate crisis by making urgent action a necessity across every sector of society by training people of all walks of life to work for just climate solutions that speed energy transition worldwide and open the door to a better tomorrow for us all. However, a universal commitment is required to participate in and support such initiatives in order to ensure a far better future than the one we have inherited.

This short review synthesizes the current scientific knowledge of climate reality, underlining key developments in the physical science basis of climate change, the remaining carbon budget, the potential for tipping points and extreme events, and perspectives on mitigation and adaptation strategies in the present day and the future. Through integrating recent findings from leading scientific assessments and peer-reviewed research, the paper aims to provide a comprehensive overview of where the world stands in the climate crisis and what pathways remain available for a sustainable future.

Material and methods

This concise review addresses several key issues, including climate change, carbon budgeting, tipping points, compound effects and extreme events, mitigation strategies encompassing technological readiness and socio-political constraints, as well as adaptation, resilience, governance, and research and policy priorities. To develop a comprehensive understanding of these themes, a critical examination of relevant literature was undertaken. The review drew upon prominent academic databases—such as Springer Nature, Nature, Scopus, Web of Science, and Google Scholar—and incorporated reports from authoritative sources, including the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and The Climate Reality Project. The search strategy employed targeted keywords emphasizing the necessity of a multidisciplinary approach to effectively address climate change.

Climate changes

Evidence from multiple lines argues for continued global warming, primarily because of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations from fossil fuel combustion, land-use change, and industrial processes. These recent authoritative syntheses are underpinned by observational datasets and process understanding, which conclude that warming is already measurable at around 1.1–1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, depending on the dataset and baseline used. The climate models in general, especially from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), have higher spatial and process resolution than earlier generations, improving regional projections, as well as attribution of extreme events. As a result, there was increased confidence that with each increment of global warming, extreme weather-heat waves, heavy precipitation, and drought-will be experienced with more frequency and increasing intensity.

Carbon Budget

The concept of a "remaining carbon budget" has become a cornerstone of climate policy and risk communication. It defines the total amount of CO₂ that can still be emitted globally while keeping warming below a specified threshold with a given probability. Recent estimates put the remaining budget for a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C at roughly 250 Gt CO₂ as of early 2023-equivalent to only a few years of emissions at current rates.

The implications are stark: delayed emission reductions drastically narrow the remaining budget and increase dependence on future carbon dioxide removal technologies, which remain uncertain in scale and governance. Thus, near-term action—and not some distant net-zero pledge—is the most critical determinant of long-term climate outcomes.

Tipping Points, Compound Effects, and Extreme Events

Tipping points are thresholds beyond which large-scale components of the Earth system may shift to qualitatively different states. Key elements at risk include the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest, permafrost regions, and major ocean circulation systems (Lenton et al., 2019). Many of these changes may be irreversible, on human timescales, and may cascade, leading to enhanced global impacts.

Meanwhile, events of all extremes are increasing in both intensity and frequency. For example, a record marine heatwave event occurred in the North Atlantic Ocean in 2023, with surface temperatures several degrees above historical norms (England et al., 2025). Global analyses indicate a threefold increase in the persistence of marine heatwaves, those that extend beyond their preceding records in area and duration (Marcos et al., 2025). These extremes have profound implications for marine ecosystems, food security, and weather patterns, underscoring the urgency of coordinated adaptation and mitigation.

Mitigation: Technological Readiness and Socio-Political Constraints

Many of the technologies needed to decarbonize the world's economy already exist. Solar and wind are now among the cheapest sources of new electricity generation in most regions. Additionally, many other key mitigation options provide substantial near-term benefits: electrification of transport, optimization of industrial processes, reductions in methane emissions from agriculture and energy systems, among others.

However, rapid and deep emissions reductions are inherently not only a technological but also a socio-political challenge. This is due to a number of barriers, which include inconsistent policy frameworks, unequal access to finance, inertia in the infrastructure, and other vested interests. Further, most mitigation pathways depend critically on massive deployment of carbon dioxide removal technologies during the second half of this century, especially options with significant ecological and ethical risks. Early and sustained reductions in emissions therefore remain the most robust strategy for limiting warming.

Adaptation, Resilience, and Governance

For mitigation, adaptation necessarily needs to occur concomitantly in order to decrease impacts that cannot be avoided. Rising sea levels, more intense storms, and prolonged droughts urge proactive measures to build resilience. Effective adaptation strategies include nature-based solutions such as mangrove restoration, improved early-warning systems, resilient urban planning, and social safety nets for vulnerable communities.

Governance makes the difference in determining adaptive capacity. Equitable, transparent, inclusive decision-making is important for maintaining social trust, and to ensure that measures of adaptation do not contribute to increasing inequality. Integrating climate resilience into development planning and finance systems can align adaptation with sustainable development goals.

Research and Policy Priorities

Key priorities emerging from current evidence include:

Refining the Carbon Budget: Reducing Uncertainties by Improving Estimates of Non-CO₂ Forcings and Earth-System Feedbacks.

Improving monitoring of extremes, in particular of compound events such as marine heatwaves, to underpin adaptation priorities.

Early detection of tipping dynamics via improved observation networks and integrated risk modeling.

Accelerate mitigation policy by phasing out subsidies to fossil fuels, scaling up renewables, and fostering just energy transitions.

Carbon removal and adaptation finance governance: Ensuring that emerging climate technologies are deployed safely, transparently, and equitably.

Conclusion

Climate reality today reflects both the culmination of decades of scientific progress and the deepening urgency of global action. Warming has already reached levels that threaten key natural and human systems, and the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C is rapidly dwindling. Tipping points and extreme events compound the risks, amplifying the stakes of delayed action. Yet not all is grim in the prospects. The scientific, technological, and policy tools needed to be deployed to minimize further degradation of the climate and stabilize it are available. The speed and scale of implementation will prove to be the prime factor. Humanity can only emerge from these challenges and leave behind a livable planet for future generations through immediate, coordinated, and equitable efforts globally in mitigation, adaptation, and innovation.

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