Plant-based meat alternatives can support reductions in agricultural land expansion and greenhouse gas emissions but entail micronutrient trade-offs
Published in Earth & Environment, Sustainability, and Agricultural & Food Science
Plant-based meat alternatives could help reduce agricultural land expansion and greenhouse gas emissions, but their nutritional consequences depend on which animal foods they replace. Using a global land-use model, we assessed the long-term environmental and micronutrient implications of different substitution strategies. Under a scenario replacing 75% of livestock products, emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use were approximately 65% lower than the baseline by 2100. However, wider substitution also increased risks of micronutrient inadequacy. Replacing ruminant meat alone achieved nearly half of the potential emissions reductions with relatively small nutritional costs. These findings highlight the importance of targeted substitution, improved product formulations and region-specific policies to support dietary transitions that advance both climate goals and nutritional adequacy.
Content introduction
What happens when plant-based meat alternatives become a substantial part of the global diet? Their potential to reduce the environmental footprint of food production is widely discussed, but the implications for micronutrient supply deserve equal attention.
In our study, accepted in Nature Food, we incorporated plant-based meat alternatives into the global land-use model MAgPIE. We examined how different substitution strategies could affect agricultural demand, land use, greenhouse gas emissions and micronutrient adequacy through 2100.
Our results reveal substantial environmental benefits alongside nutritional trade-offs. Replacing 75% of livestock products reduced projected emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use by approximately 65% relative to the baseline in 2100. Reduced agricultural expansion also helped preserve forests and other natural land. Yet broader substitution increased the risk of inadequate micronutrient supply, particularly for zinc and vitamin B12.
The choice of foods to replace was crucial. Substituting ruminant meat alone achieved nearly half of the potential emissions reductions while imposing relatively small nutritional costs. Expanding substitution to other livestock products delivered further environmental gains, but nutritional penalties rose sharply along the most efficient regional pathways.
These trade-offs also varied across regions. Areas with high livestock-related emissions had greater opportunities to reduce emissions with limited nutritional losses, whereas regions already facing micronutrient inadequacy had less room for substitution without worsening existing shortfalls.
Our findings point towards a targeted approach to dietary change: prioritize substitutions with substantial environmental benefits, improve the nutrient composition and bioavailability of alternative products, and tailor policies to regional nutritional needs. Plant-based meat alternatives can contribute to sustainable food systems, but realizing that potential requires attention to both emissions and nourishment.
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