Behind the Paper

Unmasking the Drivers of Africa’s Rising Heat Extremes

Most climate studies talk about global averages, but Africa’s climate reality is deeply regional. The Sahara’s vast deserts, the humid tropics of West Africa, and the temperate zones of the south all respond differently to the same global drivers.

Published in Earth & Environment

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Multi-forcing impacts on temperature extremes over Africa: anthropogenic, aerosols, natural, and solar influences under higher emission pathways - Discover Atmosphere

Extreme temperatures pose significant threats to various sectors across Africa, potentially disrupting livelihoods, ecosystems, and socioeconomic development. This study presents projected changes in mean and extreme temperatures over Africa from 1960 to 2100 under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios, employing the Relative Contribution Percentage (RCP) metric and analyzing fast and slow climate system responses. Our analysis reveals a shift towards more frequent and intense warm days and nights across the continent as emission scenarios intensify. The severity of this increase is directly linked to the respective emission pathways. Under SSP585, the highest emission scenario, warm night frequency (TN90p) could increase by up to 80% continent-wide by 2100, while the low emission scenario (SSP126) projects a more modest increase of 27%. Regional variations in vulnerability to temperature extremes are significant. West and North Africa show the highest projected increases in TX90p and TN90p across most emission scenarios. In contrast, East and Southern Africa exhibit relatively lower increases, particularly for TX90p. Our attribution analysis indicates that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing is the dominant driver of observed and projected temperature extremes, with relative contributions of 120% and 117% to TX90p and TN90p trends, respectively. Aerosol forcing partially offsets this warming effect, with relative contributions of − 73% and − 70% to TX90p and TN90p trends.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s44292-025-00043-9

Our study investigates how multiple climate drivers greenhouse gases, aerosols, natural, and solar factors shape Africa’s rising temperature extremes from 1960 to 2100. Using CMIP6 climate models and reanalysis data, we found that greenhouse gases are the dominant cause of warming, contributing over 100% to extreme heat trends, while aerosols slightly offset this effect through regional cooling. North and West Africa are projected to experience the most severe increases in hot days and nights, with warm night frequency rising by up to 80% under high-emission scenarios. The findings highlight that even under low-emission pathways, Africa will still face significant warming impacts on agriculture, water, and health. Urgent mitigation and region-specific adaptation strategies are needed to reduce future heat risks and build resilience across the continent.

Go to the profile of Michael Temitayo Odunmorayo
Michael Temitayo Odunmorayo
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Environmental Sciences
Physical Sciences > Earth and Environmental Sciences > Environmental Sciences
Earth Sciences
Physical Sciences > Earth and Environmental Sciences > Earth Sciences

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