Rice demand in Africa will more than double over the next 25 years due to demographic and dietary changes. At present, Africa is far from having a reasonable level of self-sufficiency for rice. A study published in January in Nature Communications shows the urgent need for yield improvement in Africa as a pathway to meet future rice demand while avoiding massive land conversion and increasing reliance on imports. The project received support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation through the CGIAR Excellence in Agronomy 2030 (incubation phase).

The research conducted by researchers from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Huazhong Agricultural University, Africa Rice Center, and Wageningen University & Research shows that current average rice yield in Africa is very low in relation to other parts of the world, highlighting a substantial opportunity to enhance rice production in Africa. “Nearly 15 million hectares of rice are waiting for yield improvement in Africa, but no yield gain can be achieved without better agronomy”, says Dr. Patricio Grassini, a professor of agronomy at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln who coordinated the team working on this project.

“At present, domestic rice production in Africa only fulfills around 60% of the demand for this crop on the continent. The rest of the demand is met through imports, which represent about one-third of the rice traded in the global market”, says Dr. Shen Yuan, a professor of agronomy at Huazhong Agricultural University and leading author of the article. “Africa’s heavy reliance on imports not only poses a significant threat to food security but also leaves the continent susceptible to external supply and price shocks, as has happened recently when India imposed bans on rice exports”, adds Dr. Martin van Ittersum, a professor of agronomy at Wageningen University.

The researchers found that Africa has the potential to increase its rice production substantially. “By employing a process-based crop simulation modeling approach combined with extensive on-the-ground data collection, we found that the average yield represents less than half of the yield that can be achieved with good agronomic practices.”, says Dr. Pepijn van Oort, a former researcher at the Africa Rice Center and currently at Wageningen University & Research.

Rice demand in Africa continues growing along with a growing population and greater consumption per person. Without a substantial increase in rice yields, meeting future rice demand will require more rice imports and/or land conversion. The researchers found that a combination of yield improvement and moderate cropland expansion following the historical trend could give the region a more optimistic future. “Halving the current yield gap will allow meeting the future rice demand of 150 million tons by 2050 without increases in current rice exports, while reducing the pressure to convert land for rice cultivation”, says Dr. Shaobing Peng, a professor of agronomy at Huazhong Agricultural University.

Achieving the desired changes in yield and production is challenging. “To overcome the long-term pattern of yield stagnation in Africa, agricultural research and development programs should focus on improving agronomic practices, including improved land development, soil and plant nutrition, weed control, and water management”, says Dr. Kazuki Saito, a former researcher at the Africa Rice Center and currently at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). “Hence, yield improvement will surely require not only good agronomic practices but also proper policy, institutions, and markets to facilitate their adoption by farmers”, adds Saito.