Spatio-temporal rainfall variability and trends using a Kriging-interpolation and Innovative trend analysis approach: the case of Wolaita zone, south Ethiopia

Understanding climate change and its local impacts has become crucial in addressing global sustainability challenges.
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Spatio-temporal rainfall variability and trends using a Kriging-interpolation and Innovative trend analysis approach: the case of Wolaita zone, south Ethiopia - Discover Sustainability

Climate change is one of the worst environmental issues, with a negative impact on most developing countries across the globe and in some regions, including Ethiopia. This study seeks to establish the temporal and spatial changes in rainfall for the period 1987–2021. In this study, ordinary statistical measures, such as the mean and coefficient of variation, precipitation concentration index (PCI), and standardized anomaly index (SAI), were applied to investigate the rainfall variation. Concerning the estimation of the spatiotemporal distribution and magnitude of changes in, non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) tests, Sen’s slope estimator, and innovative trend analysis (ITA) were also conducted in ArcGIS 10.8 environment and XLSTAT/R. The study showed significant fluctuations in rainfall in the Wolaita zone, with minimum mean annual rainfall in 1997 and maximum rainfall in 2003. All but the Belg season had more negative seasonal anomalies than positive ones. The annual rainfall for each of the AEZs in different parts of the country ranged from one another; it was 969.03 mm in a southeast lowland AEZ and 1648.75 mm in the northwest highland AEZ. Rainfall was not uniformly distributed throughout the year and study area; the highland AEZs received more rainfall in the Belg and Kermit seasons than in the lowland seasons. In the ordinary kriging results, the extent of variability in the CV of the mean annual rainfall for each zone was identifiable. The southwest lowland AEZ produced a CV of 24.22% with a decrease in rainfall amounts, and the northeast highland AEZ produced a CV of 31.63% of the rainfall distribution amounts. This area includes lowland and highland AEZs of the northeastern part of the study area’s rainfall, which is moderately distributed by PCI. This information is helpful when attempting to associate development and cropping systems with temporal and spatial climatic patterns with respect to rainfall for agro-climatological activities and projects or flood regulatory measures.

The Journey Behind the Study

The Wolaita Zone in Southern Ethiopia, with its diverse agro-ecological zones (AEZs), is emblematic of how climate variability affects rain-fed agriculture and livelihoods. As part of our exploration, we aimed to fill gaps in understanding spatio-temporal rainfall patterns that are vital for planning agriculture, water resource management, and climate adaptation.

The study employed geostatistical methods like ordinary kriging (OK) and advanced techniques such as the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA). These tools allowed us to delve deeper into rainfall anomalies, highlighting areas prone to extreme variability.

Key Findings

  1. Rainfall Distribution: The highland areas of Wolaita received significantly more rainfall compared to the lowlands. The Belg and Kiremt seasons contributed the bulk of annual precipitation, with substantial variability observed across different AEZs.
  2. Rainfall Trends: Analysis revealed a declining trend in annual and Kiremt rainfall, posing challenges for agricultural sustainability. Interestingly, the Bega season showed a slight upward trend, hinting at shifts in seasonal patterns.
  3. Climatic Impacts: Regions with higher variability in rainfall experienced greater challenges in agriculture and water management. The standardized anomaly index underscored years of extreme dry and wet conditions, crucial for stakeholders in climate adaptation planning.

Challenges and Methodological Innovations

Collecting consistent data spanning over three decades was a significant hurdle. Many weather stations in the region faced data gaps or inconsistencies, which we addressed using advanced imputation techniques. Furthermore, integrating ITA and traditional methods like the Mann-Kendall (MK) test enabled us to uncover hidden trends often overlooked by conventional analyses.

Implications for Sustainability

Our findings emphasize the importance of localized climate studies in informing broader sustainability goals. Policymakers and stakeholders can use insights from our work to prioritize interventions, such as developing drought-resistant crop varieties and enhancing water management systems tailored to specific AEZs.

Personal Reflections

Conducting this research underscored the intricate connections between climate science, agriculture, and societal well-being. The dedication of my team and the support from local meteorological agencies were instrumental in overcoming challenges, and we hope this study contributes to more resilient agricultural practices in Ethiopia.

Conclusion

This research is not just about numbers and graphs; it's a call to action for climate resilience. We invite the scientific community, policymakers, and local stakeholders to build upon our findings and take proactive measures to adapt to changing rainfall patterns.

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Climate Change Management
Physical Sciences > Earth and Environmental Sciences > Earth Sciences > Climate Sciences > Climate Change > Climate Change Management
Climate-Change Impacts
Life Sciences > Biological Sciences > Ecology > Plant Ecology > Climate-Change Impacts

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