Unsustainable palm oil production has severe long-term effects on endangered species’ habitats and continues to negatively contribute to the global warming crisis. Supporting sustainability efforts, the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO)—a globally recognized nonprofit and voluntary certification program—has become one of the most widely adopted standards in the industry, helping major palm oil producers stay aligned with key sustainability goals. For example, palm oil is a primary industry in Malaysia and contributes 2.4% to its overall GDP1[1]. In 2023/24, Malaysia produced a total of 19,000 metric tons of palm oil. And in order to facilitate sustainable palm oil production, the Malaysian government has strongly encouraged Malaysian oil palm plantations to obtain RSPO certification[2]. While pro-sustainability certificate schemes such as the RSPO seem useful in upholding environmental concerns, the unintended side effects of such certifications remain underexplored.

In a new study conducted by our research team from the University of St. Gallen, International Medical University and Georgetown University, we show that using European Space Agency (ESA) multispectral imagery satellite data, in combination with public economic and location data, reveals large unintended negative consequences of RSPO sustainability certifications. The major reason for the limited research on the environmental consequences of palm oil sustainability certifications (i.e., RSPO certification) is the demanding nature of data collection and issues of legality and self-reporting practices in this study context[3]. Therefore, our innovative approach using the ESA satellite data allows for an in-depth evaluation of palm oil plantation efficiency going beyond the known consequences of certifications.

Through the usage of Sentinel-2 multispectral imagery tiles, a total of 144 plantations in Sabah, Malaysia were analyzed between 2017 and 2023. Both plantations that gained certification in 2018 and those that obtained it in 2023 were analyzed to see the before and after certification effects. To assess the impact of RSPO certification on the oil palm plantation’s efficiency, we conducted a geospatial analysis on the predefined plantation boundaries, grouping plantations under six mills operated by CorpPalm (pseudonym).  Controlling for environmental factors and market price fluctuations, we found a statistically significant decline in plantation efficiency following certification. This decline is not attributable to environmental conditions, as vegetation health and groundwater availability remained stable throughout the study period. Instead, our results suggest that RSPO certification may have unintended consequences on plantation efficiency, with certification years coinciding with reductions in palm oil coverage.

Our study findings indicate decreases in plantation efficiency both prior to and following the certification obtainment. Our results highlight the unintended consequences of the RSPO certification process due to means-end decoupling[4], i.e., producers being trapped into producing outcomes and responses that are not explicit goals of the certification and are ill-suited to addressing the challenges of sustainable production.

We recommend that future review rounds of the RSPO Principles and Criteria (RSPO P&C) facilitate dialogue concerning unintended consequences for production efficiency and plantation coverage and adapt existing criteria without sacrificing the current benefits of the certification. As of January 8, 2025, the 2024 RSPO P&C which was formally adopted on November 13, 2024, and shall become effective and binding on November 13, 2025 does not, to the best of our knowledge, explicitly contain such considerations[5]. Policymakers are encouraged to take these findings into careful consideration. Our findings contribute to the broader discourse on sustainability governance, highlighting potential trade-offs between certification requirements and production efficiency in the palm oil sector.

Read the full paper at: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02150-2

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[1] Statistics Malaysia. Contribution of the palm oil industry to the gross domestic product (GDP) of Malaysia from 2015 to 2022. https://www.statista.com/statistics/952996/malaysia-palm-oil-share-of-gdp/ (Statista, 2023).

[2] Lim, C. I. & Biswas, W. Sustainability assessment for crude palm oil production in Malaysia using the palm oil sustainability assessment framework. Sustain. Dev. 27, 253–269 (2019).

[3] Astuti, R. et al. Making illegality visible: the governance dilemmas created by visualising illegal palm oil plantations in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Land Use Policy 114, 105942 (2022).

[4] Couture, F., Jarzabkowski, P. & Lê, J. K. Triggers, traps, and disconnect: how governance obstacles hinder progress on grand challenges. Acad. Manag. J. 66, 1617–1982 (2023).

[5] Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO). Principles & Criteria for Sustainable Cultivation of Oil Palms & Production of Sustainable Palm Oil and Oil Palm Products (Version 4.0) http://rspo.org/wp-content/ uploads/1_PC-2024-Final-Draft.pdf (2024).