The Lasting Impact of COVID-19 on Education
The COVID-19 pandemic caused unprecedented disruptions in global education systems. Schools around the world were forced to close their doors in 2020, with some reopening in 2021 while others remained closed for extended periods. On average, schools worldwide were closed for 22 weeks, equivalent to about two-thirds of an academic year. While many countries attempted to mitigate the impact of these closures through distance learning, research indicates that this method was not sufficient to prevent significant learning losses.
Studies consistently show that these closures led to substantial declines in student achievement. On average, students lost at least one-third of a year’s worth of learning. However, this loss was not evenly distributed. Disadvantaged students, particularly those from lower-income or marginalized communities, experienced greater setbacks than their more advantaged peers. Many of these students had less access to the resources needed to engage with distance learning, such as computers, a reliable internet connection, or a quiet place to study. As a result, learning inequalities worsened during the pandemic, and these losses may have long-term consequences for students’ future opportunities.
Our research[1] aims to explore these issues on a global scale, using data from the OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). The 2022 PISA round collected results from students affected by the pandemic, and we were able to combine this data with results from previous years. This allowed us to analyze how student performance in mathematics, reading, and science evolved between 2018 and 2022, providing a clearer picture of the pandemic’s impact on student learning. We model the effect of school closures on achievement by predicting the deviation of the most recent results from a linear trend using data from all rounds of PISA.
We find clear evidence that school closures led to learning losses. On average, math scores declined by 12 points from 2018 to 2022, representing about 14 percent of a standard deviation. This decline is roughly equivalent to seven months of learning.
However, the impact of school closures varied across countries, with some experiencing smaller declines and others facing more severe losses. Countries that kept school closures relatively short, experienced learning losses of 9 to 12 percent of a standard deviation, or about four to six months of learning. In contrast, countries with longer school closures saw much larger losses—up to 23 percent of a standard deviation, or 12 months of learning. This means that the longer students were out of school, the greater the cumulative impact on their learning.
Interestingly, we found that after about 40 weeks of school closures, the overall learning loss for boys and girls became similar, although boys experienced a somewhat smaller decline earlier in the pandemic.
The research also revealed significant differences in how students from different backgrounds were affected. Immigrant students, for example, experienced more severe learning losses than their native peers. On average, immigrant students lost 0.33 points for every week of school closure, which is roughly 0.4 percent of a standard deviation. While the learning loss for immigrant students was smaller in countries with shorter school closures, in countries where schools were closed for around 25 weeks, their losses were comparable to those of native students. As school closures continued, the learning loss for immigrant students increased, showing that the longer the disruptions, the greater the disparities in achievement.
Another key finding was that the learning losses varied depending on students' achievement levels. In countries with shorter closures, the largest losses were experienced by low- and average-achieving students, while high-achieving students generally faced less significant declines. In countries with longer closures, high-achieving students suffered more substantial setbacks. This suggests that the length of school closures, combined with students’ initial levels of achievement, played a crucial role in determining the extent of the learning losses.
Our research found that the pandemic worsened existing educational inequalities. Students from wealthier families had better access to resources like internet, tutoring, and quiet study spaces, giving them an advantage in maintaining learning. In contrast, lower-income students struggled with distance learning, widening the achievement gap, especially in countries with brief school closures.
The long-term economic consequences of these learning losses could be significant, as others have pointed out as well. Our estimates suggest that the average loss of 9 points in student achievement could lead to a reduction of 0.15 percentage points in global GDP growth. This amounts to a staggering $17 trillion in lost economic output. These losses are not just an academic concern but a pressing economic issue as well. If left unaddressed, they could have long-lasting effects on the workforce and global economies for decades to come.
To mitigate these losses, many countries have implemented learning recovery programs, though the evidence on their effectiveness has been mixed. Some countries have seen promising results from high-dosage tutoring programs, particularly those delivered online. These programs, which provide intensive, personalized support for students, have been shown to help close the achievement gap and accelerate learning recovery. However, for these recovery efforts to succeed, they must be carefully tailored to the needs of disadvantaged students, who are the most at risk of falling further behind.
In conclusion, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on global education, with school closures leading to significant learning losses that disproportionately affected disadvantaged students. The longer the closures, the greater the learning setbacks, and the more likely it is that achievement gaps will persist. The economic consequences of these losses are immense, with trillions of dollars potentially at stake. Moving forward, it is crucial that governments, educators, and communities invest in targeted recovery efforts to help all students, particularly those from disadvantaged backgrounds, recover from the disruptions caused by the pandemic and ensure a more equitable future in education.
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[1] Cite: Jakubowski, M., Gajderowicz, T., Patrinos, H. 2025, COVID-19, School Closures, and Student Learning Outcomes. New Global Evidence from PISA. Nature Partner Journals npj Science of Learning.
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