Recent assessments of global progress on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) show that we are not on track to achieve any of the 17 goals. To help countries achieve the goals, global research has identified six critical transformations with the greatest potential to accelerate progress. Our new study shows for the first time how these six transformations could be enabled in Australia to substantially boost progress. This would require ambitious policy and an 'all-in' approach to transform our economy, key food, energy and urban systems, human wellbeing, and the natural environment. The research findings are relevant for countries seeking to accelerate progress on the SDGs in the remaining time to 2030 and provide crucial insights as countries prepare for the 2024 UN Summit for the Future.

Background to our study

We began this study in 2020 when the world was in the grips of the COVID-19 pandemic. Here in Australia, the pandemic arrived on the heels of the 2019 catastrophic bushfires and was followed by unprecedented flooding. Together these crises had a profound impact, ending 30 years of economic growth despite unprecedented emergency economic stimulus (~15% of GDP).

But crises can also create conditions for change and many international organisations, experts, and businesses were calling on governments to use the polycrisis as an opportunity to ‘build back better’ using the SDGs as a roadmap. A key challenge was that the SDGs are broad and complex and require a mix of policies and investments, and in the post-COVID recovery context government budgets were strained, and all resources needed to be strategically harnessed. 

The identification of six critical transformations with the greatest potential to accelerate progress on the SDGs provides a simplified framework of key entry points for policy action. Our study sought to demonstrate how these six transformations could be accelerated in a post-COVID national context and what their combined effects would be for the SDGs by 2030 and 2050. As the SDGs have limited traction in Australia, we also wanted to unpack the key impediments to policy action and identify broader enabling conditions needed for transformation.

Our approach

Our approach bridges methods from modelling and transition studies to provide a comprehensive analysis – we use national system dynamics modelling to quantify the effects of ambitious SDGs policies and sociotechnical analysis and transformation storylines to diagnose policy impediments and identify enabling conditions for the ambitious new policies to succeed.

We project two alternative post-COVID recovery pathways for Australia that diverge from a critical juncture after 2020 (Figure 1, top panel). Firstly, a 'Build Back the Same Pathway' (BBS) is used as a baseline and signals a return to the pre-COVID status quo. Contrasting this, our 'Six Transformations Pathway' (STP) involves the acceleration of six transformations to achieve the SDGs (Figure, main panel). Each transformation (labelled T1 to T6 in Figure 1) includes a set of quantitative policy levers used in the model projections and a qualitative sociotechnical analysis and transformation storyline. Model projections evaluate the performance of each pathway on the SDGs in 2030 and 2050 as well as interlinkages and spill-over effects between the transformations and the SDGs, including synergies and trade-offs.

Five key findings

There is a wealth of data, visualisations, and insights in the study – including on (i) specific policy packages to accelerate each transformation and their costs, (ii) the impact of these policies on achieving the SDGs and net zero targets, (iii) the complex interactions between the transformations and the SDGs, and (iv) key impediments and conditions that determine the success of policy reforms.

I’ll touch briefly on five key findings from our ‘Six Transformation Pathway’ or STP:

1. If Australia implemented a mix of ambitious policy packages for each of the six transformations it could boost progress on all 17 SDGs (+23% by 2030 or +34% by 2050) - close to achieving the goals. Better outcomes would include more than halving poverty, reducing income inequality by a third, doubling manufacturing output, and tripling renewable energy generation.
2. The rapid transition to renewable electricity (T4) has the largest positive spill-over effects on all other transformations, by enabling investment in green manufacturing and zero carbon industries which supports a sustainable economy (T2) and opening opportunities to decarbonise the built environment and transport systems which supports sustainable urban development (T5).
3. Large positive spill-overs and synergies for the SDGs are also found from additional investments in adaptation and resilience (T1) and transforming the food system (T3) – the latter of which is critical to make gains on biodiversity goals.
4. Complex feedbacks between energy decarbonisation (T4) and a sustainable and just economy (T2) also generate trade-offs (e.g. for jobs, resource consumption and income) that constrain progress on the SDGs and will need to be managed.
5. Ambitious policy action will also need to be underpinned by enabling conditions such as shifts in narratives and public opinion, maturation of innovations, new coalitions and social movements, and support from powerful actors.

Finally, below is a figure from the study which decomposes the contribution made by each of the six transformations to progress on the 17 SDGs – coloured bar segments show the percentage point contribution from each transformation towards each SDG (i.e. the longer the segment the greater the contribution to improving progress) (Figure 2 below). 

Overall, we find the best outcome for the SDGs is achieved when all six transformations are combined through a coherent mix of policies.  Let us know what you think: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44655-4 

My sincere thanks to the study co-authors: Annabel Biddulph, Tommy Wiedmann, Matteo Pedercini and Shirin Malekpour.