A transdisciplinary, comparative analysis reveals key risks from Arctic permafrost thaw

What are the key risks of Arctic permafrost thaw?
We just published a paper on the key risks of Arctic permafrost thaw. Not familiar with the Arctic and permafrost? Want to know what we discovered? Here is our paper’s summary—simplified and stripped of academic jargon.
The "what" and "why" of permafrost thaw risks
Thawing permafrost not only poses a global threat through CO2 and methane emissions, but also has immediate and far-reaching implications for approximately three million Arctic residents living in areas most susceptible to permafrost degradation. Often resulting in environmental changes and hazards, permafrost thaw directly and indirectly impacts local communities and their livelihoods. The physical processes, hazards and societal consequences associated with permafrost thaw constitute risks that are perceived differently across the Arctic depending on the local context and place-dependent specificities. Understanding the complex nature of these risks is essential for informed policy and adaptation strategies.
What did we do?
This study is a comprehensive multi-sited analysis of the social impacts of thawing permafrost soils. Using an interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary approach, an international team led by the University of Vienna, Umeå University and Technical University of Denmark examined the social risks for Arctic regions affected by thawing permafrost.
To identify these risks, scientists studied four Arctic regions between 2017 and 2023 as part of the Nunataryuk EU-funded project: Longyearbyen (Svalbard, Norway), the Avannaata municipality (Greenland), the Beaufort Sea region and the Mackenzie River Delta (Canada), and the Bulunskiy district in the Republic of Sakha (Russia). The team included engineering and physical scientists as well as environmental, social, and health scientists, that conducted fieldwork in and with the study communities throughout four years. In addition to taking soil and water samples, measuring permafrost temperatures, and applying numerous other data collection methods, the fieldwork included talking to locals and holding community workshops.
The comprehensive risk analysis was made possible by intensive collaboration with local stakeholders and permafrost scientists, and for the first time, includes not only physical processes but also a broad overview of the social impacts of thawing permafrost soils, explains anthropologist and co-study director Susanna Gartler from the University of Vienna.
The knowledge generated through these investigations and exchanges was analyzed and synthesized to provide both a local and composite overview of permafrost thaw risks within and across the four study areas.

A figure from our paper illustrates the severity of societal consequences resulting from five identified permafrost thaw hazards, as perceived by local communities and researchers. Read the full paper to see all of our findings.
What did we discover?
The research identified key risks emerging from five interrelated hazards: infrastructure failure, disruption of mobility and supplies, decrease in water quality, challenges for food security, and exposure to infectious diseases and contaminants. Infrastructure failure and disruptions of mobility and supplies were major concerns across all study areas due to their widespread impacts on the society and economy. In many Arctic regions, including Ilulissat in Greenland, seasonal ground deformations caused by permafrost thaw are often the cause of building and road damages, leading to costly and frequent maintenance. Infrastructure located in coastal areas, deltas, along rivers, and in mountainous regions is also particularly vulnerable to permafrost thaw hazards. As one study participant reported
I have a camp by the river. This summer, a large piece of land next to my cabin broke off and plunged into the river. It’s scary.”
In delta regions, erosion can happen suddenly, with large chunks of land breaking off overnight.
As permafrost thaws, the potential release of contaminants from legacy oil and gas sumps poses a serious threat to ecosystems and human health. Drilling wastes were buried in the ground by extractive industries under the belief that soils would remain permanently frozen – a fact that is now rapidly changing with rising temperatures.
In Canada and other regions where Indigenous populations heavily depend on hunting and fishing, erosion affects food security, as cabins become more difficult to access. Soils turn soft to the point that locals refer to it as “quicksand”, and thaw slumps (a type of landslide) become more likely to occur. In Longyearbyen on Svalbard, permafrost thaw impacts buildings and infrastructure, potentially threatening access to clean drinking water, as the dam of the main water source, Isdammen, is built of frozen ground. These issues are of major concern for the health and well-being of the local population.
In the follow-up project, ILLUQ, scientists are now investigating the complex interactions between permafrost, health, and pollution.
Key data about the project
Project title: Nunataryuk – Permafrost thaw and the changing arctic coast: science for socio-economic adaptation
Duration: 11/2017 – 11/2023
Funded by EU Horizon 2020, BG-2017-1
Parts of the research were also conducted under University of the Arctic funding from the Ministry of Higher Education and Science in Denmark and supported by the the ERC project InfraNorth and the Academy of Finland.
Also featured in:
The Arctic Permafrost Atlas — A Journey Through Icy Worlds
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