To reach net zero by 2050 we will need to change our energy system at an unprecedent rate. Modern transportation contributes about 1/5^th of global energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, caused largely by combustion of petroleum fuels. Among the transport-sector, on-road vehicles are by far the largest contributors to emissions. In the last decade electric vehicles (EVs) have emerged as competitive alternatives to combustion engine vehicles, and combined with the increasing adoption of less carbon intensive energy sources for electricity, such as wind and solar, they deliver much lower GHG emissions per kilometer driven. EVs rely on a key technology: lithium-ion batteries, which can deliver on the energy density, power output and durability required for modern vehicles. The key non-substitutable ingredient in these batteries is lithium, which is considered a critical mineral as it: (i) has important uses, (ii) has no viable substitutes in those uses, and (iii) a risk of supply disruption due to rapid increases in demand and the geographical concentration of in-ground resources.

The scientific literature has quantified how many million tons of lithium we will need to extract from the ground to achieve net zero carbon ambitions. Most of these studies conclude that we have enough lithium resources, and even reserves (the fraction of resources that are currently economically viable to extract), to satisfy our future lithium needs. However, these analyses omit the dynamic aspect of mining supply: even if we have enough, is it possible to extract it at the necessary rate? This question is not trivial as mining projects face long lead times driven by the scale of the project, the permitting required, local opposition to mining, among other barriers.

Expanding the analysis on lithium resource sufficiency

Our study, recently published in Nature Sustainability, explores the lithium supply chain development at a deposit-level resolution that would be required to meet decarbonization targets. To test our lithium supply model, we first forecasted lithium demand under 11 different scenarios, all reaching 100% of EV sales by 2045 and including all on-road vehicles (from 2-wheelers to trucks), batteries for grid storage and other lithium consuming sectors (e.g. ceramics). These scenarios reflect possible futures with large or small battery packs, different battery chemistries, including emerging technologies like sodium-ion batteries or solid-state batteries, and different lithium recycling and recovery levels. Then, our supply model predicts deposit expansion or new developments based on the lithium cost curve, which includes capital and operational costs, and business environment in the country where the deposit is located, taking into account restrictions for lead times, ramp up periods, maximum extraction rates and resource depletion.

Our analysis reveals that it is possible to satisfy our lithium requirements by 2050, but it will require an unprecedented expansion in lithium mines. Besides expanding the capacity of the already 52 open or under construction deposits, 62 additional deposits worldwide will need to open by 2050, or 90 additional deposits if the trend towards larger battery packs continues. Our study shows that measures to reduce new mineral demand have a non-linear effect on reducing pressure on the lithium supply; a future with smaller battery packs leads to 35 required deposit openings, and a future with 80% of lithium recovery through recycling leads to only 21 required openings. We run our model under different supply conditions, such as the emergence of direct lithium extraction for brine deposits, technologies to separate clay from lithium, longer lead times for development and removal of certain countries from the supply availability. In all scenarios the conclusion is the same: reductions in primary (virgin) lithium demand through smaller batteries and robust recycling and lithium recovery leads to a sharp reduction in the number of new openings needed.

Recycling strategies translated into less lithium deposit openings

These findings show the most effective measures for reducing the mining requirements of the electric vehicle transition. However, major action is required by policymakers. For example, to reduce battery size while supporting EV adoption, vehicle efficiency and robust charging infrastructure must be pursued. Recycling requires robust industrial policies to mandate mineral recovery at the end of battery life. A fundamental difference between combustion engines and EVs is that the former burns gasoline in an irreversible process, while the lithium contained in end-of-life batteries can be recovered and put back into the economy, closing the loop.

We see an appetite by countries to pursue mineral exploration and mine development, and end-of-life batteries and recycling should be treated with the same enthusiasm. Action is required now to build recycling supply chains and enact policies to ensure high levels of mineral recovery, to ensure that when large numbers of EV batteries reach their end-of-life, they contribute to a circular economy for critical minerals that prevents the creation of new frontline mining communities, while also reducing supply concentration. In the fight against climate change we rarely find win-win situations – but robust recycling of end-of-life EV batteries is one of those situations and should be prioritized globally.