Understanding Australia’s Infectious Disease Trends Amid COVID-19: A Decade of Insights

Infectious diseases are not just a health issue—they impact daily life, the economy, and healthcare systems. Monitoring these diseases enables public health experts to predict outbreaks, identify vulnerable groups, and implement effective policies to reduce transmission and health risks.
Published in Microbiology and Public Health
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The epidemiology of notifiable diseases in Australia and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, 2012–2022 - BMC Global and Public Health

Background Infectious disease surveillance tracks disease epidemiology and informs prevention and control. Public health measures implemented in Australia during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020 to 2022) affected infectious disease epidemiology. We examined notifiable disease epidemiology in Australia from 2012 to 2022, evaluating disease trends and pandemic impacts. Methods We analysed case notifications supplied to the Australian National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS) from 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2022. The annual incidence and notification incidence trends were calculated and the average changes in annual incidence were investigated by Poisson regression. Results Over the study period, there were 14,087,045 notifications of 68 diseases. Respiratory diseases were the most commonly notified disease group (83% of all notifications) and vector-borne diseases the least (< 1%). The ten highest-incidence diseases comprised 97% of all notifications over the study period, with COVID-19 alone accounting for 72%. Notifications were most common among the 20–39-year age group (37%). From 2012–2019, notification incidence of gastrointestinal, respiratory and sexually transmissible infections increased, whereas for bloodborne viral hepatitis, vector-borne diseases and imported diseases it decreased. From 2020–2021, average notification incidence of most non-COVID-19 respiratory diseases decreased compared to the 2012–2019 period; sexually transmissible infections notification incidence remained fairly stable; notification incidence of some gastrointestinal diseases increased while others decreased; and notification of imported diseases markedly decreased. A rebound in notification incidence was seen for most diseases in 2022. Conclusions Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, most notifiable diseases had increasing notification incidence, except for bloodborne viral hepatitis, vector-borne diseases and imported diseases. COVID-19-related public health measures had variable impacts on notifiable diseases.

Infectious diseases are constantly evolving, and understanding their trends is crucial to keeping communities healthy. Our study examines how notifiable diseases in Australia changed over the last decade, including during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study, which analysed data from the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System from 2012 to 2022, sheds light on patterns of various diseases and the impact of the pandemic's public health measures.

Our study found that prior to COVID-19, notifications for many infectious diseases were on the rise, especially respiratory and gastrointestinal infections. In contrast, diseases transmitted through blood or by vectors, such as viral hepatitis and vector-borne illnesses, showed a slight decline. We found an annual average increase of about 11% for all disease notifications from 2012 to 2019, with respiratory diseases leading this surge. These findings indicate shifts in healthcare engagement and public health policies, diagnostic technology, and possibly changing lifestyles.

With the onset of COVID-19 in 2020, Australia implemented some of the world's most stringent public health measures, including lockdowns, international travel restrictions, and social distancing mandates. The effects on other diseases were profound. Respiratory infections, such as the flu, dropped significantly due to reduced social interactions, masking, and sanitation protocols. However, by 2022, as restrictions eased, these infections rebounded significantly.

Interestingly, while COVID-19 measures decreased respiratory infections and imported diseases, we noted that some infections continued to rise, such as certain gastrointestinal diseases and STIs. This suggests that while some infections are closely tied to social behaviour and public movement, others are less influenced by these factors or might be indirectly affected by changes in healthcare access and behaviours during lockdowns.

Using pre-pandemic trends, we also estimated that over 200,000 cases of various infections were likely averted during the pandemic. We estimated that 65,000 fewer gastrointestinal infections and 121,000 fewer sexually transmitted infections were notified. These “averted cases” provide valuable insights, showing the influence of public health measures on infectious disease dynamics. While the declines in respiratory and imported infections were expected due to restricted travel and physical interactions, the reduction in other diseases highlights how closely healthcare access and behaviours are intertwined with transmission.

Why These Findings Matter

The study’s insights are significant for several reasons:

  1. Public Health Preparedness: Knowing how diseases respond to interventions helps us prepare for future pandemics. Public health policies can be adapted to mitigate the risks of other infections when similar measures are necessary.

  2. Healthcare Planning: These trends inform healthcare resource allocation and support the development of targeted vaccination, diagnostic, and treatment programs. 

This study provides a foundation for ongoing research. Future surveillance is essential to monitor whether these trends persist or shift again as communities adjust to a post-pandemic world. By understanding these trends, public health officials, researchers, and policymakers can make informed decisions that protect communities and create resilient health systems.

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